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strategy

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What is market size?

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I’m a judge for Mass Challenge, as well as the Harvard Business School competition, and I’ve noticed that many entrepreneurs don’t know what market size means. Let me call out two of the most common mistakes, which can be the difference between recognizing a real opportunity and fooling yourself into believing something is an opportunity when it isn’t.

When a potential investor (including you, investing your time and career!) asks the size of your market, they’re asking how much money is out there (or how many customers) that could conceivable be spent on your company.

Market Size Isn’t Demographics

“The market for our new deodorant is anyone over the age of 12.” Actually, it isn’t. That’s way too general. Your market is defined at least in part by who you can reach. Your accessible market is what matters. You can’t reach everyone over the age of 12. “The market for our new deodorant is teenage girls between 14 and 18.” That is a much more realistic assessment and probably much more reachable through advertising in an identifiable set of magazines, TV ad spots, etc.

Market Size Isn’t Your Customer’s Revenues

The other big mistake entrepreneurs make is giving the market size as the total market revenues of all possible customers. “We sell hand sanitizers to media companies. Combined media revenues were $100 billion last year.” That’s a slippery evasion, because no media company will spend all their income on hand sanitizers. The market is not total revenues of all possible customers, but total amount all possible customers are likely to spend on your product. “Media companies spent $100 million on hand sanitizer last year, so that’s our market size.”

Market Size is the Potential Revenues You Can Reach

“The market for our internet-enabled back scratchers is middle-age men who feel the need for meaning in their lives. There are 50 million of them in my country, and at $19.95 (+ shipping and handling) that’s a billion dollar market.” Yes, except there’s no way to reach all 50 million of those customers. If there were a mailing list of all 50 million, you could do it. And you can certainly try your best to cover every possible advertising and media outlet that reaches middle-age men. But at the end of the day, only people you can reach with your message are potential customers.

An acquaintance of mine is developing a product for online gamers who make a living by livestreaming their games. That’s an addressable market, because there are forums, awards, conventions, podcasts, and an entire media ecosystem that pretty much every live streamer follows.

To put it all together:

When you’re evaluating the potential of an opportunity, be careful to ask how much money could reasonably come your way from the customers you’re explicitly able to reach. That is a much better number to use for market size.

Craft strategy from both inside and outside

Craft strategy from both inside and outside

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The economic playing field has gotten complicated enough that it’s foolish to step on the field without some idea of how you’re going to win. In sports, you have a playbook, which lists the plays you can make. In business, we call these “tactics.” You also need a strategy, a way to combine those plays so you win the game. While it’s possible to win without a formal strategy, having a good strategy can often give you a leg up. You’ll form the best strategy by looking both inward and outside.

Look inwards to your resources

Looking inwards tells you what you have to work with. Your strategy must deploy your resources to get the most from them. The book Top Management Strategy: What It Is And How to Make it Work by Tregoe and Zimmerman is my favorite book about creating at internal strategy. They list out twelve different ways you can concentrate your efforts.

For example, you may have invented an electric car that you sell to shipping companies. That’s given you expertise in creating electric cars, and you have expertise selling to shipping companies. You can grow your business by concentrating on bringing your technological expertise (electric cars) to new markets. You can also grow your business by developing new products to sell to shipping companies. In the first case, you’re organizing your strategy around your technology. In the second, you’re organizing around a particular set of customers. Which you decide to do is entirely up to you.

When I worked at Babson College in the team formulating the strategy of the school, Babson was ranked the #1 school for entrepreneurship, world-wide. This gave us an explicit decision: do we ignore the ranking, and (try to) build some other brand for the school, or do we concentrate in entrepreneurship. Babson chose to continue building on entrepreneurship. It didn’t have to, however. Making the choice explicit led to initiatives that would never have happened without that self-examination.

Look outwards to the environment

Great resources aren’t enough. You might have the biggest bank account in your industry, but if your competitor also owns your industry’s largest distributor, you’re going to get creamed. Your landscape determines which (if any) of your resources can help you win.

The most famous model for understanding the strategy landscape for crafting your business strategy is Michael Porter’s “Five Forces” model. My favorite is a later extension of Porter’s model, the “value net,” presented in the excellent book Co-opetition by Adam Brandenburger and Barry Nalebuff. With a value net, you look at the world around you: competitors, substitutes, suppliers, customers, complementors, and barriers to entry. You design your strategy taking into account what each part of your value net brings to the table, and how that meshes with your business goals.

For example, your industry might be dominated by two or three suppliers. That gives the suppliers tremendous negotiating leverage, and the ability to cut you out of the market if you don’t agree to their demands. Furthermore, it makes your business vulnerable if one of the suppliers encounters a disruption, since you don’t have many alternatives.

Good business strategy sometimes happens by magic, but you don’t want to bet the farm on Tinkerbell being in the right place, at the right time. Formulate your strategy by deciding how you can best deploy your internal resources given how your industry’s value net looks today. Times change quickly these days, and an integrated approach to keeping your strategy current will keep you at the top of your game.

Why business models matter: Understanding health insurance

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When you’re making business decisions, one of your most powerful tools is to understand business models. A business model is, simply, how a company makes money. If you want an in-depth definition with examples, check out my article on business models that was written during the first internet bubble, back when PayPal was a startup, Amazon only sold books, and cameras still used film. Almost every example in the article has since captured its market or gone out of business. (Challenge goal: read the article and consider how the companies’ business models did or didn’t change, and how that led to success or doom. Hindsight is a powerful learning tool!)

Become a compulsive business model collector

Often, a company’s business model constrains what it can and can not do. That, in turn, gives it strengths and weaknesses. Learning to spot business models, and do quick back-of-the-envelope calculations on them, will help you become a ninja at spotting opportunity.

When you see a hot pretzel vendor at a ballgame, ask yourself: what’s that person’s business model? How do they make money? How much product or service do they need to sell to make that money? How much does it cost them to make it? Is it a good business? Hot pretzels being one of my favorite foods as a college student, I was astonished to learn that the hot pretzel vendor cleared a six-figure income.

When you pass the neighborhood bookstore, ask how they stay in business? What’s their business model? Why does it work for them, and not for the bookstore down the block that went out of business five years ago?

When you use Facebook, ask and consider: what’s their business model, and what does that imply about the actions they’ll take? Or eBay? Or Uber?

Business models give policy insights

In a recent Facebook flame war, we were discussing different kinds of health insurance systems. Understanding the business model of an insurance company might give you some insight into their incentives and potential actions:

Health insurance companies make money through underwriting profits (premiums minus payouts and expenses) and investment income on the premiums they collect.

Insurance must ALWAYS be priced higher than needed to pay out because all that administrative overhead, salaries and buildings, needs to be covered.

Furthermore, a for-profit insurance company wants to grow profits. That means raising revenues and/or cutting costs.

How can they cut costs? By streamlining operations and finding ways to avoid paying out on existing policies.

How can they raise revenues? By increasing premiums above what’s necessary to pay out on their pool of premiums.

(They can also find ways to increase their investment income, but that’s longer-term and much less under their control. They can even play in the the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market, which no one really understands, and Warren Buffett considers a ‘Weapon of Mass Destruction’.)

Now, when we formulate our own opinions about healthcare policy (which we all do, rather than simply parroting our favorite pundit, right?), we can at least understand that the business model of insurance companies constrains their actions.

Your assignment:

Every time you interact with a business today, ask yourself:

  1. How do they make money? Where does their cash come from?
  2. In order to make that money, how much do they have to spend, and from where?
  3. What are the levers that their business models allows? What are the risks and benefits of their model?

Pretty soon, you’ll discover you can spot opportunities to bring business models to places they’ve never been used. Often, you’ll discover there’s a reason they weren’t used there. But other times, you’ll find that a shift in business model just might make you the next PayPal.

If you want to read more about [my thoughts on the insurance example implications, keep reading…

Health Insurance Business Models Drive Policy

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This is intended as an example of how understanding a business model leads to confidence in predicting the behaviors of people who use that model. This post reflects my layman’s understanding of insurance business models. If anyone knows better, please please correct me.

For you gentle readers who also don’t know the inner workings of the industry, read this to understand how a business model leads to predictions of behavior. Do not read this for accurate information about the insurance industry.

For-profit health insurance companies must overcharge

I’m guessing that competition will not produce efficient health insurance. Health insurance companies make money only two ways: through underwriting profits (premiums minus payouts and expenses) and investment income on the generated float.

Insurance will always be priced higher than needed to pay out because all that administrative overhead, salaries and buildings, needs to be covered.

Furthermore, as long as we have a market that defines “healthy” profits as profits that grow yearly, there will be ever-increasing pressure to raise profits. That means raising revenues and cutting costs.

You can only cut costs so far on the admin side. But you can reduce your payouts by writing ever more complicated policies that in fact cover less and less. You can also challenge payouts, make the reimbursement process deliberately more cumbersome, lower the ceilings of what you will cover, etc.

And of course, regulation caps permitting, you can always raise revenue by raising premium prices.

Every year, due to the market expectation of continually growing profits, all these forces will come into play. (Premium prices will rise, and people will blame Obamacare or the lack of Obamacare or greed or whatever. It’s just the way growth-oriented markets work.)

Any for-profit insurance company will feel all those forces as a simple matter of doing business. So any for-profit insurance company in a competitive market will be pressured over time to do these things.

Even if their investment income is reliably positive, they can’t control that nearly as quickly, easily, and reliably as all these other forces. And if the company is heavily invested in derivatives (which Warren Buffett calls “Weapons of Mass Destruction”), well, at some point there may be a “correction.”

There are competitive pressures at play, as well. Price wars. When a competitor lowers premium prices below the actual rational value for a given policy, a company is pressured to match that pride and write unprofitable policies in order to compete … resulting in pressure to make up profits from one of the other sources1.

That’s why private mutual insurance companies are a good thing. They still have these pressures, but at least the policyholders own the company so the company’s goals are more aligned with the goals of its members.

  1. This is one source of Warren Buffett’s wealth. When he acquire an insurance company, he gives them permission to stop pricing policies below expected payout values, even if there’s a competitive price war going on. ↩︎

Punt resolutions; use strategy, instead!

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It’s January, and we all know what that means: time to set New Years resolutions that we’re going to break! The main things resolutions are good for is causing the gym to get way too crowded for the first six weeks of the year. You have a tool at your finger tips that will do far more for you than simply setting resolutions.

Skip your resolutions and set strategy, instead.

A strategy is a 50,000-foot view of your life or business. A good strategic plan gives you a roadmap for where to put your time and effort this year. It tells you what to say “yes” to and what to say “no” to.

As you know from my article on how vision and mission relate to strategy, your strategy for a year answers the question, “How can we further the company vision, given the realities of the markets, customers, and resources under our control right now?” Strategy is how vision plays out in today’s real world context.

But when you’re setting your strategy, make sure to approach it from both the outside and the inside.

Look Outside to Set Strategy

Your strategy depends on what’s going on outside your company walls. You need to develop a plan that makes you more desirable to customers than any of your competitors. That means knowing:

  • How do your customers think of you? What product category do they put you in? (Don’t assume you know. A yacht isn’t necessarily a vehicle. Rather, it may be a status symbol.)
  • Who else is in that product category? If you’re a yacht, are you competing against Toyota and JetBlue (transportation) or are you competing against Jetstream and Sotheby’s (status symbols)?
  • What advantage do you have over your competitors?
  • How can you best communicate that advantage to the market?
  • Who has the power in your ecosystem, and how can you increase your power?

One of my favorite books on external strategy is Co-opetition by Adam Brandenburger and Barry Nalebuff. If you’ve ever heard of Michael Porter’s “Five Forces,” Co-opetition goes one step further and deepens the model. Just the way Brandenburger and Nalebuff define competitive and complementary relationships is worth the cost of the book.

Strategy Looks Inside

Looking outside is only half of the equation. You also need to look inside when you formulate your strategy. If strategy is vision made real now, part of “now” is the resources you have under your control. You need to take stock of your resources and decide which resources will form the foundation of your strategy.

When you make ultra-yachts, two of your assets are your customer list (oodles and oodles of rich people), and your yacht design capabilities. If you base your strategy off your customer list, you will expand into other products and services that your current customers might want. Like platinum dinner place settings. If, however, you base your strategy off your design capabilities, you might instead expand into other kinds of yachts, or other sea-faring vessels.

My favorite book on internal strategy is Top Management Strategy by Tregoe et al. The book is 30 years old, but is pretty much just as relevant today as when it was written.

Treat yourself to a 3-martini lunch

If you don’t have a formal strategy session planned, then at least take a long lunch. And over lunch, review the vision/mission for your venture. Why are you in the game in the first place? Then ask yourself how that gets expressed in the world of 2017. Review your external factors—competitors, customers, suppliers, and so on. Review your internal resources, and decide which you plan to base your strategy on.

Then go for it. Give shape to your plans for the next year. Make sure to build in time to review and course correct, and get your year off to a good start. A New Years resolution might only last a couple of weeks, but a good strategy will support you for a year.

JetBlue speeds towards brand destruction

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The essence of a strong brand is differentiation in a way that makes customers want to use your product or Service. JetBlue has announced a decrease in legroom and increase in baggage fees in an attempt to boost lagging profits. All I can say is, “idiots.” The entire key to branding is to have strong differentiation from your competitors. In Airlines, the only differentiators are where you fly, your prices, and your service experience.

For JetBlue, service experience has long been a serious differentiator. I would go far out of my way to fly JetBlue instead of other airlines, and I’d pay more, because the experience was just so nice. The fact that the fares were competitive was nice, but I would have paid a premium for the level of service I got.

So now that profitability is lagging, how does JetBlue choose to respond? By attempting to maintain low price position and moving towards a low service position too. Heck, what are commodities for, if not as a dying place for once-strong brands who bow to the short-sighted idiocy that has become the financial markets.

The current JetBlue executives should have their salaries and bonuses clawed back in five years if this does, indeed, herald the beginning of the end of a once-strong brand.

What’s your industry? The answer may surprise you.

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The way people define industries is really quite interesting. I’ve once again been asked to be a judge for the Harvard Business School New Venture Competition. They asked what industries I’m comfortable commenting on. It’s a surprisingly hard question to answer, because it’s quite unclear what an “industry” is. Here are a sample of a few things that people call industries:

  • B2C internet
  • B2B internet
  • Health Care
  • Medical Devices
  • Energy
  • Financial Services

What makes these an industry? Is it that all members of the same industry share the same markets? Is it that all members of the same industry share the same employee skill sets? Is it that all members of the same industry produce the same kind of products?

Every definition I’ve tried has glaring exceptions, which makes me wonder whether thinking in terms of “industries” really makes as much sense as I’ve always assumed.

Perhaps it makes more sense to think in terms of:

  • companies/products who serve a given market
  • companies/products that require certain kinds of distribution
  • companies/products that require certain specialized knowledge on the part of employees

What do you think?

What does a CIO do, anyway?

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A CIO job description

For a CEO job description, see my article on CEO job descriptions.

For a podcast of this article, see my Podcast entry.

What does a Chief Information Officer do, anyway? Most of the descriptions I’ve heard make them sound like a glorified purchaser. “They make sure our systems are up to date.” Mega-yawn. CIOs fill a very important role, it’s just no one knows what. Well, today’s podcast will outline the four things you want from your CIO (and probably don’t get).
read more…

What is a Business Model? The anatomy of how a business makes money

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Note: This article was written several years ago, when PayPal.com was a humble startup, Eudora Pro was still a leading desktop e-mail client, and cameras still used film.

Q: Many people say that they want to see your business model. What exactly do they mean by that? Do they want to know your target market and strategy, or do they need financial information as well?

A: A business model is quite simple: it is a brief statement of how an idea actually becomes a business that makes money. It tells who pays, how much, and how often. The same product or service may be brought to market with several business models.

Here are several sample real-world scenes, showing how similar products can have very different business models.

Consumer Reports vs. TIME Magazine

Consumer Reports makes money solely from grants and subscribers . It has a subscription-based business model.

TIME makes money both from subscribers and from advertisers. It has more of an advertising-based business model.

The difference in business models tells you a lot about the two businesses. Consumer Reports is going to concentrate on selecting content which will be of high enough value that people are willing to pay a subscription fee. Since it doesn’t depend on ads for income, no one but the editorial staff influences the articles.

TIME Magazine, on the other hand, also must take advertisers into account. TIME needs content for its readers, but it is largely concerned with growing a demographic for the advertising it sells. Since TIME makes most of its money from ads, an advertiser’s threat to pull advertising may put pressure on the magazine to pull or rewrite a story that the advertiser finds objectionable.

Movie Theaters

During the first several weeks of a movie’s run, almost everything in a theater’s box office goes to the film’s distributors and producers. The theater makes its money from the concession stand! The business model: sell tickets at cost, and make profit on refreshments.

This model implies that staffing the refreshment stand should be high priority. When the theater is crowded, bring in extra staff to keep refreshments flowing. Since that’s where the money is made, losing sales from too-long lines is losing the only profitable sales the theater makes.

A theater near my house rents second-run movies that have been out long enough for the theater to be able to keep most of the ticket revenue. They make much more of their money on ticket sales, and put far less emphasis on the refreshment stand.

Razors vs. Shavers

Gillette is happy to sell you their Mach III razor handle at cost, or even below cost. Because they then sell you the profitable razor cartridge refills. Again and again and again… Their business model is virtually giving away the handle and making their money from a stream of razor blade sales.

Electric shavers have a different model. They cost a lot more than the Gillette handle. They cost enough that the manufacturer makes all their money up front, rather than from the stream of blade refill sales (electric shaver blades do wear out, but it takes a much longer time).

Digital vs. Film Cameras

Traditional film cameras cost a bunch of money. And then, you buy roll after roll of film to take pictures. Then you spend even more getting the pictures developed. If you’re using a Kodak camera, Kodak film, and Kodak developing, then Kodak will be very happy. Their business model makes them money from camera sales, film sales, and processing fees.

Digital cameras eliminate film sales and processing fees. Kodak needs to find a new business model before the cameras catch on more widely. And they are working on it. They are establishing digital printing centers, where you can have your digital camera pictures printed on genuine Kodak paper. The business model that was based on film sales and processing is becoming a model based primarily on photograph printing.

paypal.com … who knows?

Sometimes a business’s business model is not obvious. The web site www.paypal.com allows you to send money to a friend via e-mail. The money is either charged to your credit card or taken in cash from your cash account at paypal.com The intriguing twist is that paypal takes no commission on the transfer.

How do they make money? What’s their business model?

I don’t know, yet. From interest, perhaps? If enough users deposit money with paypal before paying it out, they collect interest on that money until the recipient finishes the transfer. If this is their business model, then they should concentrate on increasing float: getting more interest on their money, encouraging people to fund their paypal accounts long before they will send money to friends, and encouraging people to leave the money sent to them in their account just a bit longer.

Other models they could use:

Charge a fixed transaction fee on each transaction. Resulting business goals: encourage lots of small transactions.
Charge a transaction fee that is a percentage of the transfer. Resulting business goals: encourage large transfers, since they make as much as many smaller transactions, but without the overhead of doing many transactions.
Or, since electronic funds transfers are cheaper for banks than processing check, paypal might have banks give them a percentage of the savings from doing transfers by EFT rather than by check.

Brick-and-Mortar Brokers vs. E*Trade

Traditional brokers make money by charging a commission on purchases and sales. The commission is a percentage of the transfer amount, so brokers may be happy with clients who trade infrequently, as long as they buy and sell enough at a time to generate a nice commission.

E*Trade charges a low, fixed amount per trade. Their business model is to attract high-trade-volume customers. The customers are more likely to trade often when commissions are fixed and low, and E*Trade is pushing to make up in volume what the traditional brokers make by charging a percentage.

Adware: take your choice

First pioneered in the late 1990s by Qualcomm’s e-mail program Eudora Pro, some software lets the customer choose the business model! A customer can install and use the software for free, and ads will be shown as they use the program. Or, they can pay full price and install the program without the ads.

For users who elect ads, the business model is that Qualcomm provides software for free to build an audience, and then gets income from advertising. They must spend their time selling ads and distributing their software widely to create the audience.

For users who pay for the program, the business model is the same as for any shrink-wrapped software: Qualcomm gets paid up front for a product which the customer can use forever. Qualcomm then spends their time coming up with later versions which they hope will entice customers to upgrade, sending more money into Qualcomm’s coffers.

Retainer vs. Hourly Consulting

Some freelancers charge by the hour for services delivered. Others charge a flat fee retainer which entitles a client to a certain amount of the freelancer’s time. Once again, they deliver the same service, but the different business models will result in their negotiating businesses, administering their business, and controlling costs in a very different way.